What next after lockdown?
I think it is fair to say that none of us truly knows what is next….unless you’ve got a crystal ball that is! After all, if you’d said six months ago that we’d all be staying home over the hottest Easter in recent memory, not shopping, not being found in beer gardens or parks, no queues on the M5 or M4 on a bank holiday and one of our major stresses was over toilet roll stocks, we would have laughed at you!!
So, this blog comes with the obvious caveats that all predictions are guesswork and my own opinion….
There is a lot being written about how we are all destined for a ‘new normal’ as a fantastic, shiny, world where we get to keep all the good parts of the last few months and none of the bad. So, commuting will never have queues or traffic management on the M42, there will always be a seat on the train, and your boss will let you continue to work in your PJ’s :-)
Alternatively, we could be hurtling back to the old normal where in six months time it will be like COVID19 never happened? Let’s face it, we’re already seeing people behaving like this on UK beaches or desperate to shop in IKEA or Primark! And, us humans are creatures of habit who may well revert to how we were before lockdown.
I believe that we will see a mixture of both in future, after all, even Oz had a Wicked Witch and other challenges! Some people will definitely have the tendency to go back to ‘how things were’ while others will be fundamentally changed by the COVID19 experience, whether through grief, lockdown, shielding, being deemed non essential, loneliness, home schooling, a change in priorities and more. Plus, of course, lockdown cannot end as abruptly as it started - there is likely to be sporadic local lockdown periods, continued social distancing and various preventative measures (masks, PPE, etc) for a while yet.
So ‘normal’ just won’t be possible for some time…..a recent quote from People Management suggests it “could take the best part of a year before people’s working lives resemble anything like pre-coronavirus times”.
As HR Leaders how do you plan for this? Firstly, just recognise that it will not be possible for you, your team or your organisation to legislate for every circumstance, some of what you put in place will need to be to empower your people to take their own responsibility and decisions based on parameters and expectations you set. Appreciate that you will have an unenviable balancing act between your people, what your business needs to make money (or at least, not lose money), brand and reputation, legal risk, organisational culture and professional ethics…all with the continuing pace of change.
Your reflections on the pandemic so far is bound to have thrown up plenty of positives you want to keep alongside tasks or processes that have not worked so well or aspects of your organisation that you have all missed. And these might not be the same for everyone in your team depending on how their experiences have differed.
Based on all the HR people I talk to and my other social experiences (at a distance of course!) over this period I am seeing contrasts:
Threat vs Opportunity
New hobbies or experiences vs Bored
Embracing change vs Resisting change
Badly affected vs No problems
Following guidance vs Complacent
Saving money vs Financial challenges
Able to accurately visualise a 2 metre distance vs those who approach social distancing like their (lack of) braking space when driving!!
And with every phase of the pandemic it can feel like we’re all taking a leap back to the beginning of our own personal change curve to start again! Which will impact how your team and organisation will feel about yet more change to come.
Overall, I don’t think we are finished with rapid change, this will continue well into 2021. I think we will have a recession but it won’t be like previous recessions as some people and industries are badly affected whilst others are thriving. And by the beginning of next year, the vast majority of people and businesses will be close to their normal.
Whatever happens, one prediction that I would stake money on is that we are all going to hate the phrase ‘new normal’ if we don’t already!!
